Trump's "Liberation Day" Tariffs: President Trump plans to announce reciprocal tariffs on April 2, targeting imported cars with a 25% duty. Bearish impact expected due to trade war concerns and potential inflation hike[1][4].
Fed Holds Rates Steady: The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. The projected GDP growth for 2025 is 1.7%, maintaining low recession odds[2][4]. Neutral to slightly bullish as stability is maintained.
U.S. Economy and Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence has taken a hit due to tariff threats and other economic factors. This week saw a significant decline in consumer mood[2][4]. Bearish for consumer discretionary stocks.
Key International News
Myanmar Earthquake: A devastating earthquake hit central Myanmar, causing widespread destruction and a search for survivors[1][8]. Neutral impact on global markets but humanitarian concerns rise.
Ukraine Ceasefire Proposal: Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire with Russia, pending Russia's acceptance. The U.S. has reinstituted military aid to Ukraine[3]. Bullish for geopolitical stability if the ceasefire holds.
Global Geopolitics: Leaders are addressing broader geopolitical issues including Middle Eastern conflicts and nuclear non-proliferation[3]. Neutral unless conflicts escalate.
Global Stock Market Trends
U.S. Markets: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the week down 1.5% and 2.6%, respectively. The Dow fell 1.0% due to tariff uncertainty and high valuations[4][6]. Bearish trend continues.
European and Asian Markets: European markets saw mixed results, while Asia faced declines similar to the U.S.[4]. Bearish for growth stocks and tech sectors.
Key Sectors: Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Energy performed better, while Information Technology and Industrials faced significant declines[4]. Bullish for defensive sectors.
Commodity and Currency Movements
Oil and Gold Prices: Crude oil rose to $69.36/bbl, while gold increased to $3,126.8/oz. Natural gas saw a 4% increase[4].
Currency Markets: The EUR/USD and GBP/USD showed slight gains, while the USD/JPY increased[4]. Neutral to bullish for dollar-denominated exports.
Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin experienced fluctuations, ending the week at $84,000 after hitting $87,000 earlier[2][4]. Bearish due to volatility and regulatory concerns.
Analysis of News Impact on the Stock Market
Trade Policies: Tariff announcements and threats continue to drive market volatility, with investors seeking clarity to reduce uncertainty. Bearish for international trade-dependent sectors.
Geopolitical Events: Political instability in regions like Ukraine and Myanmar could increase if tensions rise. Bearish for risk-sensitive assets.
Economic Indicators: High inflation and slowing GDP growth are key concerns, potentially leading to economic downturns. Bearish for consumer spending and economic growth stocks.