Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Inflation Worries (Bearish): Powell signals no cuts until Q2 2026 as CPI ticks up to 2.8%; S&P futures dip 0.5% premarket, pressuring tech and consumer stocks. Evidence: Fed's Dec 18 FOMC statement emphasizes data-dependent path, with dot plot showing median rate at 4.1% through mid-2026 (Bloomberg, Reuters live updates past 12 hrs).
Trump Pushes 60% China Tariffs, 25% on Mexico/Canada (Bearish): Incoming admin details trade war escalation; auto and manufacturing shares like GM (-2%) and F slide. Evidence: Trump's Truth Social post and Fox interview 10 hrs ago; White House transition team leaks to WSJ confirm scope.
Congress Averts Shutdown with Bipartisan Deal (Bullish): $1.2T stopgap funding bill passes House 220-210; defense and infra stocks rally 1%. Evidence: Vote at 2 AM ET (CNN, AP reports 10 hrs ago), averting Dec 20 deadline.
Jobless Claims Hit 240K, Unemployment Steady at 4.1% (Neutral-Bullish): Weekly data beats estimates; labor market resilience supports soft-landing narrative, lifting bank stocks +0.8%. Evidence: DOL release 8:30 AM ET (past 12 hrs), first claims lowest since Oct.
Key International News
EU Slaps 45% Tariffs on U.S. EVs in Retaliation (Bearish): Von der Leyen announces countermeasures to Trump threats; Tesla ADR -3% in premarket. Evidence: EC presser 6 hrs ago (Reuters, ECB site), targeting $10B in U.S. exports.
Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Talks Stall in Qatar (Bearish): Netanyahu rejects hostage deal; oil spikes on Mideast tension. Evidence: Al Jazeera/Qatari mediators update 4 hrs ago, no progress after 72-hr talks.
China's PBOC Injects ¥1T Liquidity, Cuts RRR by 50bps (Bullish for EM): Stimulus counters property slump; Hang Seng futures +1.2%. Evidence: PBOC statement 2 hrs ago (Xinhua), largest easing since 2023.
UK CPI Surges to 2.7%, BoE Hints at Hike (Bearish): Bailey warns of wage spiral; FTSE futures -0.7%. Evidence: ONS data and BoE speech 9 AM GMT (BBC, FT past 12 hrs).
Global Stock Market Trends
U.S. Futures Mixed: S&P -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.6% (tech drag from Fed/tariffs), Dow +0.1% (defensive tilt). Evidence: CME data 12:37 UTC, reflecting post-Fed digestion.
Europe Lower: DAX -1.1%, CAC -0.9%, FTSE -0.5% on tariff fears and BoE hawkishness. Evidence: Live from LSE/Euronext, down post-open amid EU retaliation news.
Asia Mixed Close: Nikkei -0.8% (¥ weakness), Hang Seng +0.9% (China stimulus), Kospi flat. Evidence: Session end ~4 hrs ago (Nikkei Asia, Bloomberg terminals).
Commodity and Currency Movements
Oil Jumps: WTI $74.50 (+2.1%), Brent $78.20 (+1.8%) on Mideast risks. Bearish for airlines (-1.5%), bullish energy (+2%). Evidence: EIA inventory draw of 3.2M bbls (8 AM ET), Israel news.