Futures, Fears & Weekend FOMO

Major U.S. News Headlines

• Trump weighs Iran strike amid mass protest crackdown – Bearish (risk-off)[5]

  • U.S. officials have briefed President Trump on new military options against Iran as protests over economic collapse and soaring prices spread nationwide, with reports of large-scale casualties and an internet blackout.[5]
  • Markets are likely to price higher Middle East risk premium, upside in oil, and safe‑haven demand (Treasuries, USD, gold) ahead of Monday. Bearish for global risk assets, bullish for defense/oil names.

• Escalation in U.S.–Greenland tensions – “we are going to do something on Greenland” – Moderately Bearish (geopolitical noise)[4]

  • Trump said the U.S. “is going to do something on Greenland” to prevent Chinese or Russian influence, raising tensions with Denmark over the self‑governing territory.[4]
  • Limited first-order market impact, but reinforces U.S. great‑power rivalry narrative and possible Arctic/rare‑earths strategic focus. Mild risk-off bias.

• Controversial ICE shooting in Minnesota fuels domestic unrest – Mildly Bearish (political risk)[2][4]

  • New video of the ICE shooting of Renee Nicole Good appears to contradict DHS’ “domestic terrorism” framing, prompting protests and arrests in Minneapolis and broader anti‑ICE demonstrations.[2][4]
  • Primarily a domestic political/constitutional story; modest macro impact but adds to social‑unrest headline risk into an election-heavy year.

(Recent U.S. macro/Fed‑specific releases are light in the last ~12 hours; traders should anchor this to the most recent scheduled data and Fed speakers from Friday’s session.)

Key International News

• Iran on edge: protests, heavy casualties, and potential U.S. strike – Bearish (global risk), Bullish (oil, defense)[5]

  • Protests triggered by a collapsing currency and soaring prices have spread nationwide in Iran, with human‑rights groups citing dozens killed and some reports suggesting up to 2,000 deaths in 48 hours amid an internet blackout.[5]
  • The Pentagon warns a U.S. strike could backfire and trigger retaliation across the region, but Trump is “seriously considering” options according to U.S. officials.[5]
  • Markets will likely price tail‑risk of regional conflict, supporting oil, gold, USD, defense, and weighing on EM FX, high‑beta equities, Europe.

• Growing U.S.–Europe friction over Greenland – Mildly Bearish (geopolitics)[4][1]

  • Trump’s vow to “act on Greenland” has drawn political pushback within Greenland and Denmark, with local politicians warning against overreaction during the U.S. “takeover” process and broader concerns about sovereignty.[4][1]
  • Adds to NATO/EU diplomatic strain, but still in headline rather than policy phase; risk more in FX/geopolitics than hard macro for now.

• Venezuela flagged as “un‑investable” by major U.S. oil executives – Bullish (U.S. energy majors), Bearish (EM credit)[1]

  • The head of the U.S.’s largest oil firm, speaking alongside Trump, reportedly labeled Venezuela “un‑investable,” reinforcing expectations of limited Western capital inflows and ongoing supply constraints from that producer.[1]
  • Supports medium‑term oil price floors and U.S. energy equity relative strength; negative for Venezuelan debt restructuring hopes.

Global Stock Market Trends

(No major cash sessions in the last 12 hours due to the weekend; below is how futures and the last active sessions are likely to line up into Sunday night/Monday.)

• U.S. Equity Futures – Leaning Bearish / Risk‑off bias

  • Iran headlines and U.S. strike chatter are likely to weigh on S&P/Nasdaq/Dow futures when electronic trading reopens, with classic weekend “headline gap” risk skewed to the downside.
  • Expect defense, energy, and low‑beta sectors to outperform cyclicals and small caps on Monday’s open.

• Europe (STOXX 600, DAX, CAC) – Bearish tilt via Middle East risk

  • European equities are especially sensitive to **energy